印度經濟衰退有助肅貪

印度經濟衰退有助肅貪

2013/09/27

India’s Slump May Cut Into Bribery 【By GARDINER HARRIS／陳世欽譯】 HOSPET, India — After a decade of rapid economic growth, India is in the midst of a sudden swoon, with its stock market and currency falling. But some economists believe this slowdown may be a good thing for the country, especially if it acts as a counter to the toxic mix of political corruption and crony capitalism that fueled India’s boom. India has 55 billionaires, second- most in Asia, even though more than half of its citizens have no access to toilets. “For years, I have been terrified that India was being captured by the oligarchs,” said Ajay Shah, a professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi. Mr. Shah called the last 10 years of rapid economic growth a “corruption bubble,” and he and others said the price of India’s present political and economic correction would be enormous, with growth in the next five years likely to be much less than in the last 10 years. Yet even those who have benefited from the recent corruptionfueled boom and are now suffering with its collapse are glad to see a crackdown. Three years ago, Hospet, a midsize mining town , was thriving thanks to an illegal mining bonanza. A local kingmaker had used political connections and bribes to avoid cumbersome and expensive permit processes. He opened scores of illegal mines and greatly increased production. Thousands of ore-laden trucks rumbled daily through Hospet’s streets. Much of the town’s populace was either directly or indirectly on the take. Times were good. Then India’s creaky justice system began to swing into action. Mining was stopped. The kingmaker, G. Janardhana Reddy, was arrested, and the local economy tanked. But, remarkably, in dozens of man-on-the-street interviews, not one person in Hospet said the corruption should have been allowed to continue. E. Vishwanath, owner of V.S.R. Minerals, was typical. Three years ago, he owned 10 dump trucks and leased 1,000 more and made nearly $2,000 a month, a high salary in India. He owned a car, gave his wife heavy gold chains and invited as many as 200 people to catered birthday parties for his young daughters. Since the change, banks have repossessed his trucks and he has been forced to sell his car and his wife’s jewelry. His daughters’ birthday parties are now small family affairs. “We were very happy then. We were spending and enjoying life,” Mr. Vishwanath said. “Now, it’s totally nil.” But instead of blaming judges for ending the boom, Mr. Vishwanath blamed corrupt politicians for making it too frothy. “I think we have to totally stop the corruption,” Mr. Vishwanath said. “If it had been regulated, I would still be in business.” Kiran Kumar, manager of the Krishna Palace hotel, had much the same reaction. During the boom, his hotel was bursting with steel and mining executives from China and Australia . Now, his hotel’s occupancy and room rates are half what they were. Despite the hardship, he is passionately against corruption. This year, he paid a bribe to get his 4-year-old son into a good school, an indignity that outraged him. “I know I benefited from corruption, but I’m still against it, ” he said. Corruption is not India’s only problem, of course. A tidal shift in global money flow resulting from improving economic conditions in the United States has hurt many emerging market currencies, including those of Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia and South Africa. But India has been among the hardest hit. Sourindra Banerjee, an assistant professor of marketing at the University of Warwick in Britain, said corruption had been more acceptable in India when its economy had been closed. But now that India has entered the global market, expectations have changed. “Foreign investors won’t stand for the kind of corruption that has always been fairly common in Indian companies,” Mr. Banerjee said. 中譯 印度經濟經過10年快速成長之後，突然陷入衰退，股市與貨幣雙雙下挫。然而部分經濟學者認為，對印度而言，這一波衰退未必是壞事。政治貪腐與裙帶資本主義的有毒結合當初促成了經濟的繁榮，這一波經濟衰退若能打擊這種結合，尤其令人稱慶。 印度有一半以上人口無緣使用抽水馬桶，卻有55個富豪財產超過10億美元，人數高居亞洲第二。新德里國立公共財政及政策學院教授夏赫說：「多年來，我一直十分擔心印度被寡頭把持的現象。」 夏赫表示，印度過去10年間的快速成長是一種「貪腐泡沫」。他與部分學者認為，印度矯正政治與經濟積弊代價必然極為可觀，未來五年的經濟成長幅度可能遠不及過去10年。 許多人因貪腐帶來的繁榮受惠，現在卻因榮景不再而受累。但就連這些人也樂見肅貪。 三年前，中型礦城浩斯培因為違法採礦興盛而繁榮。當地一名極有力人士靠政界人脈與行賄規避繁瑣且所費不貲的許可申請手續。他開挖數十座違法礦坑，大幅提高產量。數千輛滿戴礦石的卡車天天駛過浩斯培街頭。許多在地人直接間接受雇於他。那是段好時光。 接著，效率低落的印度司法體系開始行動。採礦作業相繼中止。有力人士芮迪被捕，當地經濟受到重創。 然而特別的是，在浩斯培訪問數十名路人，沒有一個表示當局該任由貪腐持續下去。 VSR礦業公司老闆魏希瓦納斯是典型代表。三年前，他自有10輛自動傾卸卡車，另外租用1000輛，每個月淨賺將近2000美元。在印度，這是高收入。他還擁有一輛汽車，為妻子購買厚重的金鍊子，還曾經為年輕女兒辦生日派對大宴200名賓客。 局面改變後，銀行收回他的卡車，他被迫變賣汽車與妻子的珠寶。女兒的生日派對如今已經成為家中小事。 魏希瓦納斯說：「我們當時快活似神仙。我們痛快花錢，盡情享樂。如今，一切已煙消雲散。」 然而他並未責怪法官。他認為，貪腐政客是經濟過於泡沫化的始作俑者。 魏希瓦納斯說：「我認為，我們必須徹底終結貪腐。如果當初加以節制，現在我一定還有生意可做。」 克里希納宮飯店經理庫瑪反應大致相同。經濟快速成長期間，他的飯店經常住滿來自中國大陸與澳洲的鋼鐵、礦業公司高級主管。如今，酒店的住房與訂房率少掉一半。 雖然只能慘澹經營，他仍然痛恨貪腐。今年，他為了讓四歲的兒子進入一所好學校就讀而行賄。這種屈辱使他忿忿不平。他說：「我知道我因為貪腐而得利，但我還是反對貪腐。」 當然，貪腐不是印度唯一的問題。美國經濟好轉使全球熱錢轉向，衝擊許多新興市場貨幣，包括巴西、土耳其、印尼與南非的貨幣。印度是受創最重的國家之一。 英國華威大學行銷學助理教授貝納吉表示，印度經濟閉鎖期間，貪腐比較受到容忍。如今，隨著印度加入全球市場，人們的期待也已經改變。貝納吉說：「外國投資人不可能容忍印度企業習以為常的貪腐。」 【2013-09-24/聯合報】